Research

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A Cycle-Based Approach to Assessing Credit Market Relative Value

Better than measures of the past for gauging future excess return potential.

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Benefits of Active Management

Financial market volatility has been uncharacteristically low over the past few years, and now appears to be returning to a more normal, higher level. 

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Banking on the Consumer: Spending More, Saving Less

While aggregate consumer spending is robust, the data obscure risks spawned by income inequality.

Equity Markets Correct

February 12, 2018

It may take some time for the markets to find their bottom. However, our recession indicators are not rising, our cycle indicators are not flashing warnings and our realtime activity indicators say this is a technical selling correction that will exhaust itself.

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Senior Loan 2018 Outlook

January 25, 2018

As we enter 2018, the macro environment continues to remain supportive for credit markets generally. However, the prolonged stretch of low volatility has driven yield-hungry investors to overlook potential risks. Against this backdrop, we believe the most significant risk in the loan market resides in CCC and below-rated loans, as any unexpected uptick in volatility skews risk significantly to the downside.

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Capital Market Assumptions for 2018

December 21, 2017

When financial market historians look back at 2017, the year probably will be highlighted for its tightly compressed levels of volatility. Another notable aspect of the year is that, heading into late December, there has not been a single month of negative returns for the S&P 500 index.

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Unconstrained Fixed Income: Perspectives on Duration

November 8, 2017

An unconstrained opportunity set should not equate to unconstrained risk. In this analysis, we explain why clearly defined risk tolerances, not specific return targets, are most important when approaching today's challenging fixed income markets.

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