As expected, the Fed cut rates by 25 bp in Wednesday’s meeting, the third rate cut this year. However, three officials dissented—two (Goolsbee, Schmid) disagreed with the cut, while one (Miran) wanted a 50 bp cut.

Odds of a rate cut at next week’s Fed meeting rose, pushing equities higher and yields down.

November kept investors on their toes. Early in the month, stocks that had been winning all year suddenly fell behind, while sectors that had lagged started to catch up. Companies tied to artificial intelligence (AI) faced pressure as investors worried about high valuations and how much big tech firms will need to borrow to fund their massive spending plans. At the same time, concerns grew about whether the AI boom is becoming a “circular economy,” where companies mostly sell to each other instead of creating new demand.

Stocks and bonds climbed, yields fell, and most companies topped forecasts over the holiday-shortened week.

Third-quarter results were strong, even as the broader economy showed signs of slowing.

The labor market, a potential AI-bubble, and the December Fed meeting drove the equity markets lower while bonds rose.

The labor market is a key barometer for economic health and market direction. Recent data underscores its importance: October’s Challenger Report showed more than 153,000 planned job cuts, the highest for that month in over two decades, while Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification Act (WARN) notices surged to nearly 40,000 across 21 states. These aren’t just headlines—they help shape expectations for growth, inflation, and policy.

With official economic data still on hold, markets focused on signs of labor softening reflected in layoffs and survey results.

In 2025, the U.S. economy has shown resilience despite challenges from government policies.

Despite significant market volatility and policy shifts, the U.S. economy enters a new paradigm with a solid foundation.