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U.S. macro momentum’s surprise

April 23, 2025
Thanks broadly to pressure from elevated policy uncertainty, recent weeks have brought us a sharp rout in global markets—erasing trillions in value...

The new trade war means ongoing uncertainty for markets

April 17, 2025
Barriers to open trade are rising at a pace not seen in decades, as the initial brunt of President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs proliferate through major economies. What began as a trade spat during Trump’s first term has broadened into a worldwide reshuffling of supply chains, with tariffs, anti-dumping duties, and import quotas escalating across the globe.

Examining the uncertainty premium

April 2, 2025
The U.S. Economic Policy Uncertainty Index recently spiked to levels not seen since the Covid-19 pandemic. As of March 2025, the index has risen past 700, which is many multiples of the historical average. That has a couple potential implications for markets—the least of which is more volatility.

The great American confidence gap

March 26, 2025
Recent data suggests that U.S. consumers are growing increasingly pessimistic about the economic outlook, and the financial markets are starting to reflect that reality. Here’s what’s happening, and what it could mean for your portfolio.
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