The June payrolls report came in at 57,000, well short of expectations, and the prior months got revised downward for good measure. Hiring has been slowing all year. This report just made the trend harder to explain away.

Last week, America’s collective attention was divided between two major events: the country’s 250th birthday and the wedding of Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce. Both got wall-to-wall media coverage, while the June jobs report—which actually moved markets—settled for a press release and a shrug.

As the stock market rally faces fresh uncertainty, another trend is emerging: margin debt is on the rise.

The Strait of Hormuz spent the spring operating as the most expensive parking lot in human history, a few hundred oil tankers idling in the Gulf and running up a tab the entire planet was somehow on the hook for. This week, the U.S.–Iran interim deal to reopen it stripped the risk premium that had been welded onto every barrel. Crude that had surged on the disruption reversed hard the moment the market decided the oil was no longer stuck.

Nobody walked into this week expecting a bargain, but the final number still surprises you when you see it on the window.

In 2025, the U.S. economy has shown resilience despite challenges from government policies.