Global Perspectives | Voya Investment Management

Global Perspectives

Relentlessly rising fixed income yields and the discount rate

September 27, 2022

It is simply astounding, the relentless pace that fixed income yields continue to rise. First, it was the two-year US Treasury note that smashed through 4% to a hefty 4.2% yield; today (Tuesday) the 10-year note is at a 4-handle and 30-year mortgage rates are being quoted at over 7%.

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Financial markets sold off across the globe

September 26, 2022

Financial markets sold off across the globe as investors confronted slowing growth, ripping inflation and escalation of the Ukraine war — and another 75-basis-point (bp) rate hike from the Federal Reserve.

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The Federal Reserve is on track for another jumbo rate hike

September 20, 2022

Today the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will make its fed funds rate hike, and it is going to be a doozy. The median forecast is for the FOMC to raise rates by 75 basis points (bp), but I am expecting a truly jumbo rate hike of 100 bp that will bring the fed funds rate to 3.50%.

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Retail sales, jobless claims hit back against rising costs

September 16, 2022

August’s CPI increase came as a surprise to many, and the market did not react favorably. Though the month over month change was a modest 0.2%, a raise is still a raise; and it’s also raising concerns over just how well the Federal Reserve is doing in its matchup against inflation.

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Fire Hose of Bad News but Profits Keep Growing

September 8, 2022

As we noted in the Global Perspectives 3Q22 Mid-Year Outlook, “The fire hose of bad news has been spraying from geopolitics, inflation and the markets all year long, wreaking havoc on investors’ ability to make coherent decisions.” The spraying continued today, as the European Central Bank raised rates by 75 basis points (bp), exceeding expectations for 50 bp, and with more increases likely to come. In that same Outlook, we also stated, “The good news is that while the macro environment may drive markets in the short term, as it is doing now, fundamentals ultimately drive markets over the long term.” August ISM Services PMI rose to 56.9, better than expected. The new orders component surged to 61.8, the best since September. The August nonfarm payroll report jumped by 315,000; even though the unemployment rate ticked up it was still low at 3.7%. Meanwhile, S&P 500 2Q22 earnings rose by a better than expected 8.5% compared to the second quarter a year ago. So I would recommend taking the fire hose of bad news with a grain of salt.

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