The U.S. Consumer: Confidence vs Activity
April 23, 2026
March retail sales highlighted the growing disconnect between consumer confidence and consumer behavior. Retail sales surged 1.7% month over month, following a revised 0.7% gain in February, marking the strongest monthly increase in more than three years. But of that 170 basis point jump, roughly 110 of it came from higher energy prices—specifically, gas station sales jumping a whopping 15.5%. So is consumer demand still healthy, or are prices just going up? Let’s look closer.