The disinflationary story of 2025 was going well. Prices were falling, central banks softening, and the path back to the Fed’s 2% inflation target looked less like a forecast and more like an actual plan. People were starting to believe it—which, in retrospect, was the tell.

Just when the market was starting to act like it could possibly go five minutes without a fresh identity crisis, here come the IPO rumors. SpaceX could hit in June. OpenAI is reportedly eyeing September. Anthropic is aiming for later in 2026.

On Tuesday, the 20- and 30-year U.S. Treasury yields hit their highest levels since 2008.

Earlier this week, we received both CPI and PPI data, pointing to an economy still dealing with inflationary pressures. CPI came in slightly above expectations in April, while PPI surprised more meaningfully to the upside. Investors should closely monitor how these trends flow into PCE inflation data. Given the differences in how CPI and PCE weight certain categories, particularly software-related services, the AI boom could lead to a larger-than-normal divergence between the two inflation measures. Overall, this will be an important signal to watch going forward, as markets remain highly sensitive to inflation news.