Recent trade agreements with Japan and the EU are reshaping the U.S. economic landscape. Should you reshape your portfolio to match?

Second quarter 2025 earnings are off to a solid start.

It appears that new tariffs are starting to affect consumer prices. In the June inflation report, headline CPI accelerated to 2.7% over the prior 12 months, up from 2.4% in May. Core CPI (which excludes food and energy) rose 2.9%, the fastest pace since February. On a monthly basis since May, the headline index increased 0.3% while core rose 0.2%.

Are we at the peak of the business cycle, or are we still in growth mode? Estimating our current position in the cycle has important implications for portfolio allocation, as asset classes can perform differently in each stage. One way to make that estimation is via the high yield bond spread—and here’s what it has to say for allocators.   

With the first half of 2025 in the books, the global economic environment remains clouded by policy uncertainty. Over the past few weeks, a steady stream of economic data has reinforced a familiar narrative: while soft data has been volatile, hard data continues to show resilience.

Despite the numerous headlines around potential stagflation and recession, the U.S. economy continues to show signs of strength and stability. While growth has cooled from its post-pandemic highs, the data points to a controlled normalization. Here’s what’s happening, and what it means for your portfolio...