The Strait of Hormuz spent the spring operating as the most expensive parking lot in human history, a few hundred oil tankers idling in the Gulf and running up a tab the entire planet was somehow on the hook for. This week, the U.S.–Iran interim deal to reopen it stripped the risk premium that had been welded onto every barrel. Crude that had surged on the disruption reversed hard the moment the market decided the oil was no longer stuck.

Nobody walked into this week expecting a bargain, but the final number still surprises you when you see it on the window.

The disinflationary story of 2025 was going well. Prices were falling, central banks softening, and the path back to the Fed’s 2% inflation target looked less like a forecast and more like an actual plan. People were starting to believe it—which, in retrospect, was the tell.

Just when the market was starting to act like it could possibly go five minutes without a fresh identity crisis, here come the IPO rumors. SpaceX could hit in June. OpenAI is reportedly eyeing September. Anthropic is aiming for later in 2026.

On Tuesday, the 20- and 30-year U.S. Treasury yields hit their highest levels since 2008.