Recent economic releases point to slowing momentum in U.S. growth. This week’s ISM survey data shows that while activity remains in expansion territory, demand indicators have softened, reflecting more cautious business conditions. Ongoing uncertainty tied to geopolitical conflict and trade policy continues to weigh on confidence, while the lagged impact of earlier monetary tightening is still restraining investment and hiring. These headwinds point to softer growth dynamics, even if outright contraction is avoided. Here’s what’s in the numbers, and where they might hit your portfolio.

This week represents one of the largest concentrations of earnings in the 1Q26 reporting season.

March retail sales highlighted the growing disconnect between consumer confidence and consumer behavior. Retail sales surged 1.7% month over month, following a revised 0.7% gain in February, marking the strongest monthly increase in more than three years. But of that 170 basis point jump, roughly 110 of it came from higher energy prices—specifically, gas station sales jumping a whopping 15.5%. So is consumer demand still healthy, or are prices just going up? Let’s look closer.

By the end of March, as the S&P 500 flirted with correction territory, markets appeared to carve out a bottom.

In ISM’s March survey, released this week, Services and Manufacturing remained in expansion territory for a third consecutive month.