Senior Loan Talking Points

Weekly Notables

The loan market was on a weaker footing this week, as secondary prices fell on Monday in reaction to news over the weekend regarding potential tariffs. Nonetheless, the Morningstar® LSTA® US Leveraged Loan Index (Index) still delivered a positive return of 0.03% for the seven-day period ended February 6, as the carry offset market value losses. The average Index bid price declined by 13 bps, finishing the week at 97.51. 

Primary market activity was quiet this week and tilted back towards opportunistic transactions, as acquisition-related deals were modest at just $1.2 billion. Overall, new institutional loan supply amounted to $8.9 billion, which was down from $14.1 billion last week, while repricing activity also saw a reduction with the softer secondary market. In the forward calendar, net of the anticipated $19.5 billion of repayments not associated with the forward pipeline, the amount of new supply projected to enter the market was $7.1 billion, down from $13.3 billion in the prior weekly estimate. 

The overall tone was notably softer in the secondary market given the macro headlines, which disproportionately affected the riskier segments of the market. In terms of total returns, BBs, Bs and CCCs returned 0.04%, 0.04% and -0.21%, respectively. 

Loan demand continued at a strong clip this week. Loan funds saw a meaningful inflow of $1.77 billion, which was the largest weekly inflow since the first week of April 2022. Within that, ETFs and mutual funds added $1.18 billion and $593 million respectively. On the CLO side, managers priced seven new deals this week, bringing YTD issuance to $13 billion. 

There were no defaults in the Index this week.

Average Bid
February 1, 2021 to February 6, 2025
Average Bid
Average 3-YR Call Secondary Spreads 1,2
January 1, 2021 to January 31, 2025
Average 3-YR Call Secondary Spreads 1,2
Lagging 12 Month Default Rate 3
February 1, 2021 to February 6, 2025
Lagging 12 Month Default Rate 3
Index Stats

Source: Pitchbook Data, Inc./LCD, Morningstar ® LSTA ® Leveraged Loan Index. Additional footnotes and disclosures on back page. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investors cannot invest directly in the Index. *The Index’s average nominal spread calculation includes the benefit of base rate floors (where applicable).

Monthly Recap: January 2025

Despite increased volatility to start the year due to DeepSeek’s new AI model and uncertainty around tariffs, risk assets broadly delivered positive returns in January. The U.S. loan market returned 0.69% for the month. Coupon carry remained a key driver of performance, as the market value component of return was relatively flat. Compared to other asset classes, loans were in the middle of the pack, outperforming investment grade corporates and treasuries, but underperforming high yield bonds and equities. 

Trading levels in the secondary market continued to grind higher, as the average bid price of the Index increased by 28 bps, closing out the month at 97.61. In addition, the percentage of loans trading at par and higher moved up to nearly 66%, which is near last year’ peak of 68% from early December. In terms of credit quality, lower-rated credits outperformed during the period due to greater market value increases and higher coupon carry. For context, BBs, Bs and CCCs returned 0.66%, 0.67%, and 0.96%, respectively. 

The persistent demand/supply imbalance that was evident in 2024 continued into the new year, as the overall market saw a notable supply shortage. Primary market activity continued to reflect an elevated level of repricings given the strong technicals. Total repricing volume was roughly $138 billion for the month, the second-busiest month on record (and only behind last month’s $153 billion). With issuers continuing to lower their borrowing costs, the Index’s nominal spread decreased to S+338 bps. Net of repricings, which don’t count towards new supply, overall issuance was approximately $59 billion. Additionally, stripping out refinancing transactions, net supply was $35 billion in January, the second-highest monthly volume in three years, with the majority of that being M&A activity. On the demand side, investors continued to pour assets into the space, as evidenced by both steady CLO issuance and net retail fund flows. CLO managers priced $8.7 billion of new deals in January, while retail loan funds and ETFs added $4.6 billion of inflows, according to LCD. 

There was one default in the Index during the month (Aimbridge Hospitality). As a result, the trailing 12-month default rate by principal amount increased slightly to 0.94%. Meanwhile, using LCD’s dual-tracker default rate, which also incorporates distressed exchanges and LMEs, the overall default rate for the loan market eased in January to 4.58% (from 4.70% last month).

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Unless otherwise noted, the source for all data in this report is Pitchbook Data, Inc/LCD. Pitchbook Data/LCD does not make any representations or warranties as to the completeness, accuracy or sufficiency of the data in this report. 

1. Assumes 3 Year Maturity. Three-year maturity assumption: (i) all loans pay off at par in 3 years, (ii) discount from par is amortized evenly over the 3 years as additional spread, and (iii) no other principal payments during the 3 years. Discounted spread is calculated based upon the current bid price, not on par. Please note that Index yield data is only available on a lagging basis, thus the data demonstrated is as of September 13, 2024. 

2. Excludes facilities that are currently in default. 

3. Issuer default rate is calculated as the number of defaults over the last twelve months divided by the number of issuers in the Index at the beginning of the twelve-month period. Principal default rate is calculated as the amount defaulted over the last twelve months divided by the amount outstanding at the beginning of the twelve-month period. 

General Risks for Floating Rate Senior Loans: Floating rate senior loans involve certain risks. Below investment grade assets carry a higher than normal risk that borrowers may default in the timely payment of principal and interest on their loans, which would likely cause the value of the investment to decrease. Changes in short-term market interest rates will directly affect the yield on investments in floating rate senior loans. If such rates fall, the investment’s yield will also fall. If interest rate spreads on loans decline in general, the yield on such loans will fall and the value of such loans may decrease. When short-term market interest rates rise, because of the lag between changes in such short-term rates and the resetting of the floating rates on senior loans, the impact of rising rates will be delayed to the extent of such lag. Because of the limited secondary market for floating rate senior loans, the ability to sell these loans in a timely fashion and/or at a favorable price may be limited. An increase or decrease in the demand for loans may adversely affect the loans. 

This commentary has been prepared by Voya Investment Management for informational purposes. Nothing contained herein should be construed as (i) an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy any security or (ii) a recommendation as to the advisability of investing in, purchasing or selling any security. Any opinions expressed herein reflect our judgment and are subject to change. Certain of the statements contained herein are statements of future expectations and other forward-looking statements that are based on management’s current views and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in such statements. Actual results, performance or events may differ materially from those in such statements due to, without limitation, (1) general economic conditions, (2) performance of financial markets, (3) changes in laws and regulations and (4) changes in the policies of governments and/or regulatory authorities. The opinions, views and information expressed in this commentary regarding holdings are subject to change without notice. The information provided regarding holdings is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Fund holdings are fluid and are subject to daily change based on market conditions and other factors. 

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

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