Weekly Notables
The loan market was on a weaker footing this week, as secondary prices fell on Monday in reaction to news over the weekend regarding potential tariffs. Nonetheless, the Morningstar® LSTA® US Leveraged Loan Index (Index) still delivered a positive return of 0.03% for the seven-day period ended February 6, as the carry offset market value losses. The average Index bid price declined by 13 bps, finishing the week at 97.51.
Primary market activity was quiet this week and tilted back towards opportunistic transactions, as acquisition-related deals were modest at just $1.2 billion. Overall, new institutional loan supply amounted to $8.9 billion, which was down from $14.1 billion last week, while repricing activity also saw a reduction with the softer secondary market. In the forward calendar, net of the anticipated $19.5 billion of repayments not associated with the forward pipeline, the amount of new supply projected to enter the market was $7.1 billion, down from $13.3 billion in the prior weekly estimate.
The overall tone was notably softer in the secondary market given the macro headlines, which disproportionately affected the riskier segments of the market. In terms of total returns, BBs, Bs and CCCs returned 0.04%, 0.04% and -0.21%, respectively.
Loan demand continued at a strong clip this week. Loan funds saw a meaningful inflow of $1.77 billion, which was the largest weekly inflow since the first week of April 2022. Within that, ETFs and mutual funds added $1.18 billion and $593 million respectively. On the CLO side, managers priced seven new deals this week, bringing YTD issuance to $13 billion.
There were no defaults in the Index this week.
Source: Pitchbook Data, Inc./LCD, Morningstar ® LSTA ® Leveraged Loan Index. Additional footnotes and disclosures on back page. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investors cannot invest directly in the Index. *The Index’s average nominal spread calculation includes the benefit of base rate floors (where applicable).
Monthly Recap: January 2025
Despite increased volatility to start the year due to DeepSeek’s new AI model and uncertainty around tariffs, risk assets broadly delivered positive returns in January. The U.S. loan market returned 0.69% for the month. Coupon carry remained a key driver of performance, as the market value component of return was relatively flat. Compared to other asset classes, loans were in the middle of the pack, outperforming investment grade corporates and treasuries, but underperforming high yield bonds and equities.
Trading levels in the secondary market continued to grind higher, as the average bid price of the Index increased by 28 bps, closing out the month at 97.61. In addition, the percentage of loans trading at par and higher moved up to nearly 66%, which is near last year’ peak of 68% from early December. In terms of credit quality, lower-rated credits outperformed during the period due to greater market value increases and higher coupon carry. For context, BBs, Bs and CCCs returned 0.66%, 0.67%, and 0.96%, respectively.
The persistent demand/supply imbalance that was evident in 2024 continued into the new year, as the overall market saw a notable supply shortage. Primary market activity continued to reflect an elevated level of repricings given the strong technicals. Total repricing volume was roughly $138 billion for the month, the second-busiest month on record (and only behind last month’s $153 billion). With issuers continuing to lower their borrowing costs, the Index’s nominal spread decreased to S+338 bps. Net of repricings, which don’t count towards new supply, overall issuance was approximately $59 billion. Additionally, stripping out refinancing transactions, net supply was $35 billion in January, the second-highest monthly volume in three years, with the majority of that being M&A activity. On the demand side, investors continued to pour assets into the space, as evidenced by both steady CLO issuance and net retail fund flows. CLO managers priced $8.7 billion of new deals in January, while retail loan funds and ETFs added $4.6 billion of inflows, according to LCD.
There was one default in the Index during the month (Aimbridge Hospitality). As a result, the trailing 12-month default rate by principal amount increased slightly to 0.94%. Meanwhile, using LCD’s dual-tracker default rate, which also incorporates distressed exchanges and LMEs, the overall default rate for the loan market eased in January to 4.58% (from 4.70% last month).