Voya Strategic Income Opportunities Fund Quarterly Commentary - 3Q25

The third quarter of 2025 marked a pivotal shift in the economic narrative, as the labor market—long a pillar of resilience—began to show signs of strain. Early in the quarter, the June non-farm payrolls (NFP) report surprised to the upside, showing 147,000 jobs added and unemployment dipping to 4.1%. However, this apparent strength proved short-lived. By quarter end, payroll data had been revised sharply lower, revealing a trend closer to 30,000 jobs—well below breakeven—and an outright decline in June. These developments prompted the U.S. Federal Reserve to resume rate cuts at its September meeting, with the updated dot plot signaling two additional cuts by year end and a more dovish outlook into 2026. 

Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks at Jackson Hole underscored the fragility of the current labor market equilibrium. He noted that slowing demand was being offset by a decline in labor force participation and immigration, creating a delicate balance that could unravel quickly if layoffs accelerate. This dynamic has helped contain wage pressures, but it also introduces new risks to growth. Meanwhile, inflation remained stubbornly above the Fed’s 2% target, with core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) rising to 2.9% by quarter end. Notably, core goods inflation accelerated, suggesting that tariff-related pass-through effects are beginning to materialize. 

Trade policy developments added further complexity. On July 13, 2025, President Trump announced a 30% tariff on goods from the European union and Mexico, effective August 1, 2025. Market reaction was muted, likely due to the limited scope of the tariffs and the absence of immediate retaliation. Subsequent trade deals with Japan and the EU helped ease tensions, lowering tariffs from “Liberation Day” levels to 15% and including commitments for foreign investment and increased U.S. imports. 

Financial markets responded constructively to the evolving macro backdrop. Rates rallied across the curve, led by the front end, while credit spreads continued to tighten, reflecting investor confidence in the Fed’s pivot and the relative stability of corporate and consumer fundamental factors. As a result, most fixed income sectors delivered positive total and excess returns. 

For the quarter, the Fund outperformed the Index on a NAV basis. Despite a tick higher in inflation, rates rallied in response to weaking observed in labor data as well as the dovish response from the Fed. The rally was led by the front end, while longer term rates experienced more muted declines. Due to the Fund's relative long duration position, this meant it contributed to performance. Given the risk-on sentiment over the period, our overweight to spread sectors contributed to relative performance. The largest contributions came from agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS), which delivered strong outperformance on the back of falling rate volatility and government-sponsored enterprise (GSE) speculation, and high yield corporates, which continued to tighten in this risk on environment. Security selection results detracted from relative performance over the quarter, driven by our bias towards shorter dated investment grade (IG) corporates and our allocation to collateralized mortgage obligations (CMO) given the outperformance of pool securities.

As we enter the final quarter of 2025, the economic landscape remains shaped by a complex interplay of policy shifts, labor market dynamics, and inflation pressures. Our base case anticipates U.S. growth to remain positive but below potential—likely hovering slightly above 1%—as consumers face the headwinds from newly implemented tariffs. However, we think companies may absorb some of the tariff cost, thanks to tailwinds from deregulation and fiscal stimulus via the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), which delivers $300 billion in tax relief. While growth is expected to slow, the economy remains supported by easy financial conditions and targeted fiscal spending abroad, particularly on infrastructure and defense. 

Inflation remains a focal point, with mixed signals emerging. Tariff passthrough to consumer prices has been more muted than anticipated, and data shows disinflationary trends in services. This is supportive of our view that tariffs' function more like taxes—dampening demand rather than fueling price increases. However, risks persist. The potential for renewed wage pressures, driven by declining immigration and labor force participation, and delayed tariff effects could keep inflation anchored above 3%. The Fed, acknowledging the fragility of the labor market and limited inflation passthrough thus far, has resumed rate cuts and signaled a gradual, data dependent easing path. With fed funds still above neutral, policymakers retain flexibility to respond if conditions deteriorate more quickly than expected. 

For fixed income markets, we maintain a cautiously constructive outlook. Yields remain elevated, despite a weakening labor market and a dovish Fed, which allows fixed income to deliver positive returns under a range of potential scenarios. Corporate fundamental factors remain strong, so while further spread tightening appears unlikely, outperformance can still be realized through higher carry.