Do Rising Yields Signal Rising Risk?
Home

Do Rising Yields Signal Rising Risk?

 Time to read: Minutes
Barbara Reinhard

Barbara Reinhard, CFA

CIO, Multi-Asset Strategies and Solutions

Calculator with Spreadsheet

U.S. Treasury yields are back in the spotlight as a mix of tariff threats, geopolitical tensions, and rising policy uncertainty have pushed borrowing costs higher. Last week, the 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.30% during a sharp move away from risk, while 30-year yields rose to 4.95%, threatening to surpass the 5% threshold for the first time since July 2025. These yield moves, tied to escalating U.S.-Europe trade tensions and Japan's fiscal crisis, have raised fears of a broader "sell America" trade. 

The turbulent bond market could pose challenges for stocks as well. The recent surge in Treasury yields has raised concerns about the country's "safe haven" status, putting pressure on equities. Even so, we believe the robust fundamentals reflected in 4Q25 earnings reports so far should keep investors grounded. 

The bottom line: Rising Treasury yields are potentially signaling renewed market stress— driven by tariffs, geopolitical uncertainty, and fiscal concerns—which stock market investors should keep an eye on. Despite the volatility, U.S. corporate fundamentals remain solid, offering a stable backdrop as markets navigate this volatile period. 

Data as of 01/20/26. Source: Bloomberg. 

Julia Rozenfeld contributed to this article.

Tags:
Global Perspectives

Related Insights

Shifting U.S. and International Trends

October 10, 2025

In 2025, the U.S. economy has shown resilience despite challenges from government policies.

IM5166928

Voya Investment Management has prepared this commentary for informational purposes. Nothing contained herein should be construed as (i) an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy any security or (ii) a recommendation as to the advisability of investing in, purchasing or selling any security. Any opinions expressed herein reflect our judgment and are subject to change. Certain of the statements contained herein are statements of future expectations and other forward-looking statements that are based on management’s current views and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in such statements. Actual results, performance or events may differ materially from those in such statements due to, without limitation, (1) general economic conditions, (2) performance of financial markets, (3) interest rate levels, (4) increasing levels of loan defaults (5) changes in laws and regulations and (6) changes in the policies of governments and/or regulatory authorities. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns. 

The opinions, views and information expressed in this commentary regarding holdings are subject to change without notice. The information provided regarding holdings is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Strategy holdings are fluid and are subject to daily change based on market conditions and other factors.

Top