Who fills the data void during a government shutdown?

As of late October 2025, the U.S government remains in the second-longest shutdown in its history. This standstill has disrupted pay for workers, stopped government services, and has halted the release of key economic indicators that investors and policymakers rely on. 

At the same time, there has been growing skepticism around government data quality after recent reports revealed declining survey response rates. These recent concerns about the accuracy and trustworthiness of these statistics may prompt investors to seek alternative data sources. 

For asset allocation teams, the reliability and representativeness of economic statistics are crucial for making strategic investment decisions. Metrics such as GDP growth, inflation, employment, and consumer sentiment play a crucial role in shaping top-down discussions and guiding the asset allocation decisions within portfolios. 

Government data, particularly from agencies like the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Census Bureau, has long been considered the "gold standard" due to its comprehensive, consistent, and longstanding reliability. These datasets are not only used by businesses and financial institutions, but also serve as the foundation for monetary and fiscal policy decisions. 

In addition to halting data collection and publication, the shutdown has raised questions about the methodologies used in gathering the data. The Bureau of Labor Statistics has faced challenges in generating sufficient responses to its survey requests, leading to large revisions after the initial reports. Budget cuts, resource constraints, and declining survey participation for government institutions all lead to the possible acceleration of private label data. 

Unlike government institutions that depend on survey-based questionnaires for their reports, private data centers use innovative and distinctive methods to capture and analyze trends. For example, ADP's payroll report uses the change in the number of paychecks processed by ADP to capture payroll trends. This report often aligns closely with the Bureau of Labor Statistics' final and revised versions of the private nonfarm payroll release, providing a reliable indicator of payroll activity. 

Private companies also have the ability to collect economic data from the swipes on your credit cards to the location of your smart phone, providing high-frequency data that would be helpful in understanding real-time economic implications. 

While private data centers and companies offer innovative methodologies and promising results, they cannot replace federal data resources. Government data is freely accessible to the public, whereas private data comes at a cost. Additionally, the transparency of methodologies used by private companies does not match the level of openness provided by the BLS and Census surveys. 

In the long run, we may see a hybrid model emerge: Government data providing the comprehensive coverage and institutional integrity, while private data offers speed, granularity, and innovation. For now, the shutdown has exposed a vulnerability in how we understand the economy. 

Julia Rozenfeld contributed to this article.