Quarterly Global Perspectives

2020 Forecast The Storm before the Calm — The Sequel

December 1, 2019

While warnings of recession, bear markets and trade wars going into and throughout 2019 were rampant, calendar year equity returns are shaping up to be among the best since 2009. What did the market miss, and what insight might it give us for our 2020 forecast? Well, contrary to popular belief, when the market is coming to an inflection point, it is fundamentals that show the way, notprice action, which in fact often shows the wrong way.

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3rd Quarter Update: Storm Clouds Gathering

October 1, 2019

The gathering storm clouds that first began forming across Europe, and then China are now developing over the U.S. In Europe, it seems imminent that the third quarter will signal a recession; China has its hands full with the U.S. supply chain; and the U.S. suffered a substantial negative surprise in its very important manufacturing sector.

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Midyear Update: May Showers Bring June Flowers

July 1, 2019

We unabashedly tout our 2019 theme, “The Storm before the Calm,” as it accurately unfolded in the markets in the first half. The storm in December was followed by a calm from January through April, which sent markets to near record highs.

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Markets Springing Ahead, not Springing a Leak

April 1, 2019

During the first quarter of 2019, a field of green across the board replaced the steep market declines of 4Q18. Double-digit equity returns rewarded investors in U.S. and international markets alike.

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2019 Forecast: The Storm Before the Calm

December 1, 2018

In 2019 we expect, and prudent investors should prepare for, “the storm before the calm” — tighter monetary conditions, uncertainty that includes a “disorderly Brexit” and increasing tensions between China and the United States on multiple fronts. 

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