U.S. Macro Momentum Holds Steady

As summer 2025 winds down, the global economy continues to hum along despite the pessimistic narratives around stagflation, recessions, and trade wars. Notably, the U.S. economy remains resilient, showing signs of strength and stability. Growth has moderated from its post-pandemic highs, but recent data suggest a controlled normalization rather than a downturn. 

Here’s a snapshot of key macro trends (year over year change): 

✖ Business cycle: U.S. 2025 GDP consensus forecast down -0.1% to +1.6% from +1.7%; inflation forecast up +0.5% to +2.8% from +2.3% 

✔ International trade: Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index down -2.7% 

✔ Monetary policy: 2-year Treasury yield eased -0.3% to 3.62% from 3.92% 

✔ Risk sentiment: S&P 500 total return +15.9% 

Despite softening GDP and rising inflation, other indicators such as a weaker dollar, easing yields, and strong stock market performance point to continued macro resilience. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for the third quarter has also been revised upward to 3.5% from 2.2%, reinforcing the narrative of economic strength. 

With equity markets at all-time highs and rate cuts potentially beginning in September, investors appear confident in the U.S. economy’s ability to weather future turbulence. 

Maverick Lin contributed to this article. 

Data from Bloomberg. The S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged index that measures the performance of securities of approximately 500 of the largest companies in the United States. Investors cannot invest directly in an index. Index returns do not reflect fees, brokerage commissions, taxes or other expenses of investing.