U.S. macro momentum: Still resilient
Barbara Reinhard, CFA
CIO, Multi-Asset Strategies and Solutions
With the first half of 2025 in the books, the global economic environment remains clouded by policy uncertainty. Over the past few weeks, a steady stream of economic data has reinforced a familiar narrative: while soft data has been volatile, hard data continues to show resilience.
Take a look at recent macro data (year-over-year %):
- ✖ Business cycle: GDP forecast down -0.3% to +1.5% from +1.8%; inflation forecast up +0.5% to +2.9% from +2.4%)
- ✔ International trade: Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index down -6.3%
- ✔ Monetary policy: 2-year Treasury yield down -1.03% to 3.72% from 4.75%
- ✔ Risk sentiment: S&P 500 total return up +15.2%
While business cycle indicators such as GDP and inflation are starting to trend downwards, other metrics—a weaker dollar, easing yields, strong equity market performance—suggest that macro momentum remains resilient. The labor market also continues to show strength, with the unemployment rate holding steady around 4.2% and this week’s JOLTs data coming in better than expected.
Despite persistent volatility, the U.S. economy appears to be navigating the turbulence relatively well. With equity markets at all-time highs, investors appear to be betting that companies will successfully adapt to evolving tariff policies and short-term disruptions.
Maverick Lin contributed to this article. All data from Bloomberg.