As the market broadens beyond the AI trade, shifting Fed signals and lofty earnings expectations demand more active judgment.

Last week, America opened football training camp and released the first reading of 2Q gross domestic product. Both looked great on paper, neither counts yet, and the real results won't arrive for another month.

Growth now takes far more investment than it used to. Trade is reorganizing, energy risks are rising, and inflation lingers.

Last week, America celebrated 57 years since we strapped three guys to a building-sized firecracker and yeeted them at the moon. The labor market saw that anniversary and said, “Hold my clipboard.”

Last week, America enjoyed its largest monthly decline in inflation since April 2020. That lasted roughly three days, until renewed fighting around the Strait of Hormuz pushed oil back above $80. Bagged lettuce gets a better run than that. Oh, wait…

Last week, markets divided between mega caps, AI-linked tech, and energy driving the winning side, while small and mid caps sank lower. All eyes are now on housing, inflation, and retail sales data due out this week, along with Fed Chair Warsh’s congressional testimony.

The retirement income conversation belongs in your DC practice. Lead it before someone else does.

An energy shock, sticky inflation, and fractured global policy have made the path forward less forgiving.

The first phase of the AI trade rewarded broad calls: “Buy power!” “Sell software!” The next phase will require much more discrimination across business models, capital structures, and industries.

International small cap stocks can help round out a global equity allocation, offering growth and diversification potential beyond international large caps and U.S. stocks.