Bank lending and deal flow on the decline, economic stress on the rise and some of the best yields our teams have seen. It’s a surprisingly good time for private credit.
Capital markets have responded positively to better-than-expected economic outcomes so far this year. While the United States has managed to avoid an official recession, growth is almost certain to slow and increases in profits will be challenged. Given this backdrop, we see equities trading sideways to slightly higher in the near term and we continue to favor the U.S. over the rest of the world.
The ratings cut on U.S. Treasuries presents an uncomfortable reality about the United States’ long-term fiscal stability, but it’s not a doomsday scenario.
Watch Barbara Reinhard, CFA, Head of Asset Allocation and new Portfolio Manager for the Voya Global Perspectives Strategies, as she shares our outlook on U.S. markets, inflation, employment and corporate earnings in the coming quarter.
We believe the risk of a technical default remains extremely low, but the consequences would be swift and painful, likely compelling elected officials to find common ground for a resolution.
Another regional bank falls, but the markets are seeing the forest from the trees as challenges appear contained.
An unexpected shock in the banking sector has stress-tested the economy and policymakers. Both initially passed. But the impact on lending and credit conditions remains unclear and increases the likelihood of a mistake by the Fed going forward.
Moving away from an abnormal regime of crisis-era stimulus won’t be a smooth process. But the volatility should be easier to stomach knowing that the destination is likely to be a healthier, more balanced economy.
Banks and borrowers must now deal with tighter credit conditions, bringing a quicker end to rate hikes but also more economic risks.
We do not see signs of systemic risk, but further volatility is likely in the near term.