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Last week, America learned that a Fed staffer pointed out investors are receiving remarkably little extra compensation for owning stocks instead of bonds, and everyone immediately went back to talking about inflation. Very normal. Very fine.
After a week in which 30-year Treasury yields hit a 25-year high, we decided to go to the source and talk to Mr. Bond himself. The following conversation has been edited for clarity.
Last week, America got the sort of economic data that leaves everyone nodding and squinting at the same time. Inflation cooled. Stocks rallied. Then, retail sales unexpectedly fell. The economy spent most of the week telling investors to relax and ended it with a warning about the consumer. The result was modest gains by most major stock market indexes and a small loss in the U.S. Agg.
The latest inflation report gave investors the one thing they crave more than returns, more than yield, and more than a Bloomberg terminal that doesn't look like it was designed by a Soviet air traffic controller in 1987: no surprises.
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