The back half of 2026 may hinge on six themes: AI spending, uneven growth, labor supply, sticky inflation, uneasy central banks, and volatile bond markets.
The Trump administration is taking stakes in chip, defense, quantum, and rare earth companies that align with policy priorities. These “National Champion” stocks could see long-term competitive advantages that aren’t immediately apparent.
Last week, markets divided between mega caps, AI-linked tech, and energy driving the winning side, while small and mid caps sank lower. All eyes are now on housing, inflation, and retail sales data due out this week, along with Fed Chair Warsh’s congressional testimony.
Last week, America’s collective attention was divided between two major events: the country’s 250th birthday and the wedding of Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce. Both got wall-to-wall media coverage, while the June jobs report—which actually moved markets—settled for a press release and a shrug.
Jim Lydotes flips the timer on a retail energy deal, thinner consumer cushions, and how index rebalancing shows why investors should look beneath the market surface.
Last week, America's pre-birthday physical came back mixed. The labor market remains robust and spending is up. The number nobody wants elevated is inflation, which reached a three-year high. Factory orders are the bruise that looks worse than it is; blame aircraft.
The back half of 2026 may hinge on six themes: AI spending, uneven growth, labor supply, sticky inflation, uneasy central banks, and volatile bond markets.