The back half of 2026 may hinge on six themes: AI spending, uneven growth, labor supply, sticky inflation, uneasy central banks, and volatile bond markets.
The June payrolls report came in at 57,000, well short of expectations, and the prior months got revised downward for good measure. Hiring has been slowing all year. This report just made the trend harder to explain away.
Last week, America’s collective attention was divided between two major events: the country’s 250th birthday and the wedding of Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce. Both got wall-to-wall media coverage, while the June jobs report—which actually moved markets—settled for a press release and a shrug.
Last week, America’s collective attention was divided between two major events: the country’s 250th birthday and the wedding of Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce. Both got wall-to-wall media coverage, while the June jobs report—which actually moved markets—settled for a press release and a shrug.
Jim Lydotes flips the timer on a retail energy deal, thinner consumer cushions, and how index rebalancing shows why investors should look beneath the market surface.
Last week, America's pre-birthday physical came back mixed. The labor market remains robust and spending is up. The number nobody wants elevated is inflation, which reached a three-year high. Factory orders are the bruise that looks worse than it is; blame aircraft.
The back half of 2026 may hinge on six themes: AI spending, uneven growth, labor supply, sticky inflation, uneasy central banks, and volatile bond markets.