Are consumers becoming more tolerant of roaches, or simply less tolerant of rising costs (even for pest control)? Plus, hunting for the next leg of AI winners.
Last week, America got the sort of economic data that leaves everyone nodding and squinting at the same time. Inflation cooled. Stocks rallied. Then, retail sales unexpectedly fell. The economy spent most of the week telling investors to relax and ended it with a warning about the consumer. The result was modest gains by most major stock market indexes and a small loss in the U.S. Agg.
The latest inflation report gave investors the one thing they crave more than returns, more than yield, and more than a Bloomberg terminal that doesn't look like it was designed by a Soviet air traffic controller in 1987: no surprises.
Are consumers becoming more tolerant of roaches, or simply less tolerant of rising costs (even for pest control)? Plus, hunting for the next leg of AI winners.
Last week, America learned payrolls shrank 23,000 in July (versus the 83,000 gain economists expected) and revisions to May and June data erased another 103,000 jobs. Investors heard the news and piled money into stocks anyway, with the confidence of the guy who insists gas-station sushi is safe.
Housing policy may not move home prices quickly, but it could reshape the mechanics that drive mortgage lending, RMBS spreads, cash flows, and relative value.
Last week, America opened football training camp and released the first reading of 2Q gross domestic product. Both looked great on paper, neither counts yet, and the real results won't arrive for another month.