Last week, America opened football training camp and released the first reading of 2Q gross domestic product. Both looked great on paper, neither counts yet, and the real results won't arrive for another month.
- U.S. stocks rebounded. The S&P 500 rose 1.05% and the Nasdaq grew by 1.59%. Consumer discretionary led while utilities lagged. Large caps beat small caps and value outperformed growth. International stocks won across the board, led by Japan.
- Bonds and rates: The Bloomberg Aggregate Bond Index slipped 0.12% as the U.S. Treasury yield curve steepened, with the 2-year yield falling to 4.27% while the 30-year rose to 5.25%, a 19-year high. A hawkish Fed usually pushes short-term yields up and long-term yields down, because tighter monetary policy now means lower inflation later; this did the opposite.
- Commodities: Crude oil fell 5.2% to $84.67 a barrel while gasoline climbed to $4.40 from $4.30. Gold rose to $4,107 and the dollar slipped to 99.91. Copper, a decent read on whether the world is actually building anything, hit $13,834 a metric ton, up 10.6% since December.
- The Fed held at 3.50%–3.75% on a 9–3 vote, with all three dissenters wanting a hike, marking the most dissents since September 2016. Fed Chair Warsh has stripped the official statement down and dropped forward guidance, so the vote count is now the only tea leaf left to parse. September hike odds have moved from 24% to 57%.
- The personal consumption expenditures price index fell 0.1% in June after rising 0.5% in May, while core PCE, which strips out food and energy, rose 0.1%. Year over year, headline cooled to 3.7% and core held at 3.3%. Energy prices have since gone completely feral, and forecasters expect July to run hotter.
- The first reading of Q2 gross domestic product showed the U.S. economy grew by 1.5%, down from 2.1% in Q1 and below the 2.1% economists expected. The drag came from lower government spending and a jump in imports, which GDP subtracts. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers (consumer spending plus business investment) rose 3.9%, more than double Q1. But everybody's going to quote the 1.5%.
- Durable goods orders rose 0.3% in June, held back by carmakers and defense. Strip those out and core capital goods—the stuff businesses buy to build things—rose 0.9%, and computers and electronics jumped 3.1%. Core shipments had their best month in four-and-a-half years.
- Consumers: June income rose 0.2%, spending rose 0.3%, and the saving rate fell to 2.7%. Americans covered the gap from the emergency fund, which lives in the junk drawer under the takeout menus, six keys of unknown origin, and a disposable camera from 2004.
- Consumer confidence slipped to 90.8 in July from 92.2, missing the 92.65 estimate. June's reading improved on cheaper gas; July’s gave it back.
- Jobless claims: Initial jobless claims for the week ended July 25 came in at 197,000 against 207,500 expected. Continuing claims for the week ended July 18 were 1.782 million.
- Earnings: Blended S&P 500 earnings growth is 26%, with 304 companies reporting and 196 to go. 85% beat expectations, 4% matched, and 11% missed. Energy leads at 127.9%. So, the Iran war that’s inflating your gas bill and worrying three Fed policymakers is also the biggest contributor to American corporate profits. Every time you wince at the pump, a small part of your retirement account is thrilled.