Last week, while many people were arguing online about bringing an iced coffee to a job interview, America arrived carrying a caramelcolored bucket of optimism and approximately 2,400 milligrams of caffeine. Strong growth, resilient hiring, and steady consumer demand suggested the economy may have ordered the largest size after all.
- U.S. stocks rallied during the week as investors embraced the stronger-growth story. The S&P 500 Index gained 1.21% while the Nasdaq Composite rose 2.06%. Growth crushed value and large caps outperformed small caps.
- U.S. bonds struggled as yields climbed. The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index lost 0.82%. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose 15 basis points to 5.16%, while the 30-year increased 16 bp to 5.49%.
- The commodity complex looked like three medieval prophets standing on a hillside receiving wildly different visions of the future. Oil fell 3.8% to $92.41 per barrel, gold declined 2.4% to $4,321 per ounce, and copper rose 1.5% to $14,740 per metric ton. Copper saw prosperity, gold saw interest rates, and oil may have been looking at an entirely different kingdom.
- August’s industrial production report showed that the sector remains stable, but momentum is hard to find. Output was flat and manufacturing fell 0.3%.
- The final reading of the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment fell to 48.1 in September. The gap between how American consumers say they’re feeling and what they're actually doing has become large enough to qualify as a scenic overlook.
- The Leading Economic Index slipped 0.1% in August, its first decline since March—not a recession signal so much as finding a single wet footprint on your kitchen floor and realizing nobody's been outside.
- New home sales jumped 6.4% in August, handily beating expectations despite higher mortgage rates. Buying a home in America right now is roughly as affordable as an Oasis reunion ticket, yet house hunters keep finding a way into the venue.
- The 2Q current account deficit widened to $246 billion as imports outpaced exports, a signal that America continues to approach international trade like a raccoon that somehow acquired a rewards credit card.
- Initial jobless claims for the week ended September 19 fell 1,000 to 197,000 while continuing claims for the week ended September 12 grew 2,000 to 1.719 million. At this point, layoffs have become Bigfoot. People keep telling stories about them, but the evidence remains frustratingly limited.
- If current estimates hold, 2Q26 S&P 500 earnings are on track to grow roughly 54% year over year, or 50% excluding energy. Meanwhile, 86% of reporting companies have beaten analyst expectations, well above the long-term average of 67%, while revenues are expected to increase about 16% (13.6% excluding energy).