Last week, America considered cutting back, then remembered pumpkin spice is only available for a limited time. Economic uncertainty, on the other hand, seems willing to work around your schedule. The latest reports showed consumers spending more money while feeling worse about the outlook, which makes sense if you’ve ever decided to start budgeting immediately after one small purchase.
- The S&P 500 fell 0.27% while the Nasdaq gained 0.45%, with technology having a different week from most of the market. Tech rose 1.45%, and growth beat value, but eight of the S&P 500’s 11 sectors declined. Only energy and utilities joined tech in positive territory.
- Caught between a weak jobs report and stubborn inflation, bonds had plenty of maturity and very little composure. The U.S. Aggregate Bond Index fell 0.60% as Treasury yields rose to 4.83% (2-year) and 5.28% (10-year).
- Oil slipped to about $91 a barrel, offering some hope for lower fuel costs, although relief at the pump rarely arrives ahead of schedule. Gold futures fell 1% on Friday to $4,162 an ounce as a stronger dollar and higher bond yields reduced its appeal.
- The U.S. dollar had a better week than the pound and euro, gaining against both, while staying roughly even with the yen. That gives Americans more buying power abroad but makes life harder for U.S. exporters.
- Hiring continued in September, technically. The U.S. added just 29,000 jobs versus 133,000 in August, while unemployment ticked up to 4.2%.
- The August JOLTS survey delivered more of a sleepy nudge, with job openings declining to 7.08 million from 7.34 million as the labor market continued its gradual cooldown.
- Second-quarter U.S. economic growth got a glow-up: the government’s third GDP estimate showed the economy grew at a 2.2% yearly pace, up from the earlier 1.5% estimate. Both figures account for inflation.
- U.S. consumers gave the economy a vote of confidence at the checkout, then had second thoughts: spending rose 0.9% in August (compared with just 0.1% in July), but confidence fell from 88.6 in August to 81.9 in September as households grew more pessimistic.
- Manufacturing had a quiet September, with the Institute for Supply Management’s purchasing managers’ index essentially unchanged at 54.5. Unfortunately, prices didn’t get the message: the index tracking prices manufacturers pay jumped to 77.9 from 71.1 in August.
- Employers kept a tight grip on workers, perhaps unwilling to sit through another round of interviews. Initial jobless claims edged down to 197,000 from 198,000 for the week ended September 26, while continuing claims fell to 1.701 million from 1.712 million for the week ended September 19.
- Construction spending picked up in August, rising an estimated 0.9% after a 0.1% dip in July. Spending was still 1.7% below a year earlier, so the comeback remains a work in progress.
- 2Q26 earnings season is essentially in the books: S&P 500 profits rose 53.7% from a year earlier, and 86.1% of companies beat estimates. Q3 is already underway, with 11 of the first 13 companies beating expectations. Analysts expect 30.6% profit growth for the quarter, a slowdown that still seems unlikely to qualify for sympathy.