Last week, America enjoyed its largest monthly decline in inflation since April 2020. That lasted roughly three days, until renewed fighting around the Strait of Hormuz pushed oil back above $80. Bagged lettuce gets a better run than that. Oh, wait…

Last week, markets divided between mega caps, AI-linked tech, and energy driving the winning side, while small and mid caps sank lower. All eyes are now on housing, inflation, and retail sales data due out this week, along with Fed Chair Warsh’s congressional testimony.

Last week, America’s collective attention was divided between two major events: the country’s 250th birthday and the wedding of Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce. Both got wall-to-wall media coverage, while the June jobs report—which actually moved markets—settled for a press release and a shrug.

Last week, America's pre-birthday physical came back mixed. The labor market remains robust and spending is up. The number nobody wants elevated is inflation, which reached a three-year high. Factory orders are the bruise that looks worse than it is; blame aircraft.